Unyaka ka-2022 usuzophela, hlobo luni “lwephepha lempendulo lonyaka” oluzolethwa yizohwebo lwangaphandle lwaseShayina?
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani eliphelele lokungeniswa kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyi-11 zokukhula okuqhubekayo ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinga lokukhula kokuhweba kwamanye amazwe inyanga nenyanga kusukela ngoJulayi inyanga nenyanga liyehla; Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuze kutholakale ama-oda amaningi, kusukela ezifundazweni zomnotho ezisogwini olusempumalanga kuya ezifundeni eziphakathi nezisentshonalanga, ohulumeni abaningi bahlele amabhizinisi okuhweba kwamanye amazwe ukuthi andize phesheya ukuze athuthukise izimakethe.
IPhini likaMongameli we-China Center for International Economic Exchanges, owayenguSekela Ngqongqoshe Wezohwebo uWei Jianguo, uthe engxoxweni ekhethekile nentatheli yezindaba ekhulayo, kulindeleke kulo nyaka wonke, ukungenisa nokuthumela impahla kwamanye amazwe kwe-China kuzohlala kunempilo futhi kuzinzile, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuzoqhubeka nokukhula ngamadijithi amabili.
Kodwa-ke, uWei Jianguo ukhombe ukuthi ukwehla kwesilinganiso sokukhula kwenyanga eyodwa kusesesigabeni esizinzile, futhi ukwehla "kungokwesikhashana, kuyaqondakala", "ukwesaba okungadingekile, akunakusho ukuthi ukwehla kwesilinganiso sokukhula kwenyanga eyodwa ukufakazela ukuthi ikusasa lokuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe lifiphele, ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe kusesesigabeni sokusebenza esinempilo nesizinzile."
Ngokuphathelene nesimo sokuhweba sonyaka ozayo, uWei uthe isimo sonyaka ozayo sibi kakhulu, amabhizinisi okuhweba angaphandle asekhaya kusamele anqobe umthelela obangelwe ubhubhane lwasekhaya, isikhathi esilibazisekile sokuzibamba, okuyiyona nto ebalulekile. Uphinde wagcizelela ukuthi ngemva kwalolu bhubhane, imboni yokukhiqiza yomhlaba wonke, imali, ubuchwepheshe kanye nethalente kuzosheshisa ukudluliselwa eShayina, kumele silungiselele, lapho izifundazwe zilungiselela kakhulu, amathuba amaningi okubamba.
Uma kukhulunywa ngesenzo samanje samaqembu amaningi endawo sokuthatha imiyalo, uWei uchaze lokhu ngokuthi “ukusungula izinto ezintsha emlandweni wokuhweba kwamanye amazwe”, ngesikhathi esifanayo, kuwukusetshenziswa komhlangano weCentral Political Bureau kaDisemba 6 ohlongozwayo “amaqembu anesibindi sokwenza, asendaweni anesibindi sokwenza, amabhizinisi anesibindi sokwenza, izixuku zinesibindi sokwenza amaphayona”. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uWei uphakamise ukuthi izindawo eziningi kufanele ziphume ngenkuthalo zithathe isinyathelo, “njengenyakatho-mpumalanga, manje kufanele kuthiwe zidlala indima ‘yeqembu’ isikhathi esingcono kakhulu.”
"Ukwehla kwezinga lokukhula kungokwesikhashana, ukungeniswa nokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla zokuhweba kwaminyaka yonke kuzoqhubeka nokuba yintuthuko enempilo nezinzile"
Izindaba Zokusurfa: Idatha ekhishwe yi-General Administration of Customs ikhombisa ukuthi ngenyanga kaNovemba, inani eliphelele lokungeniswa kanye nokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eShayina elingama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingu-3.7, okuwukwenyuka kuka-0.1% unyaka nonyaka, izinga lokukhula kwenyanga eyodwa liyaqhubeka nokwehla, ungalubheka kanjani lolu shintsho?
Wei Jianguo: Isizathu sokwehla kokukhula kokuhweba kwamanye amazwe ngenyanga eyodwa, esinye ukusatshalaliswa kwamaphuzu amaningi kobhubhane lwasekhaya kanye nezinye izendlalelo zokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane lwendawo, okuholele kwezinye izindawo zokuvinjelwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, okwesibili ukwanda kwezinga lenzalo le-Federal Reserve okuholele ekukhuphukeni kwamanani aphezulu kwezomnotho kweminye iminotho, amandla okuthenga kwabathengi athintekile ngezinga elithile, ngasikhathi sinye, ukwehla kwesidingo sabathengi bangaphandle, okuholele ekusileleni kwempahla egciniwe, okubuye kuthinte ama-oda alandelayo ekhasimende, okwesithathu yingxabano yaseRussia ne-Ukraine, ngemuva kokuba amanani Amandla enyuke, izindleko zokuthutha zikhuphuke, kanye namafektri athile eYurophu avalwe, kangangokuthi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, kube nokwehla kwesidingo sezimpahla zabathengi ezikhiqizayo neziphilayo eShayina.
Kodwa-ke, ukwehla kokuhweba kwamanye amazwe ngenyanga eyodwa kusesebangeni elizinzile, ukwehla kungokwesikhashana futhi kuyaqondakala, ngokombono jikelele, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe kusesebangeni lokusebenza elinempilo nelizinzile, akunakusho ukuthi ukwehla kwesilinganiso sokukhula ngenyanga eyodwa ukufakazela ukuthi ikusasa lokuhweba kwamanye amazwe lifiphele.
Izindaba zokusurfa: ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyi-11 zalo nyaka, ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe kweShayina kunayiphi into efanele ukunakwa?
Wei Jianguo: Ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyi-11, inani eliphelele lokungenisa nokuthumela impahla eChina elingama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingama-38.34, ukwanda ngo-8.6% esikhathini esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, lapho, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okungama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingama-21.84, ukwanda ngo-11.9%, ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe okungama-yuan ayizigidigidi eziyi-16.5, ukwanda ngo-4.6%, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe noma ukukhula okuphindwe kabili.
Njengoba ukusebenza kokuhweba kwamanye amazwe kulo nyaka kunezimpawu eziningana ezibalulekile okufanele ziqashelwe. Okokuqala, ukuthengiswa okuvamile kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kube ngaphezu kuka-60% wenani eliphelele lokuhweba kwamanye amazwe, kwafinyelela ku-63.8%, okuwukwenyuka kwamaphuzu angu-2.2% esikhathini esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, ukusebenza okuhle kokuhweba okuvamile kubonisa ukuthi umjikelezo wasekhaya waseShayina njengomjikelezo oyinhloko, wasekhaya nowamazwe ngamazwe wokukhuthazwa kwephethini entsha yentuthuko uyaqala.
Okwesibili, ukuhweba ngokucubungula kukhule kancane. Ngesikhathi sobhubhane, ukuhweba ngokucubungula kube nokukhula okuhamba kancane, noma okungekuhle, kuyilapho izinyanga zokuqala eziyi-11 zokuhweba ngokucubungula ukungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle ama-yuan ayizigidigidi eziyi-7.74, ukwanda okungu-1.3%, ukwanda okuncane kokubaluleka okukhulu kokukhula kokuhweba ngokucubungula kungemuva kwendawo yebhizinisi eShayina sekungcono, inani elikhulu labatshalizimali bangaphandle batshala imali ebhizinisini, ukukhiqiza okwengeziwe.
Okwesithathu, izinga lokukhula kokungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe laseShayina elihlangene lamazwe ahamba nge-“Belt and Road” liphakeme kunezinga lokukhula lokuhweba kwamanye amazwe lalelizwe, kanye nobudlelwano bayo bokuhweba obuseduze kakhulu, ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyi-11, ukungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kwaseShayina okuhlangene kwamazwe ahamba nge-“Belt and Road” okuyi-12.54 trillion yuan, ukwanda okungu-20.4%, izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lamaphuzu angu-11.8 aphezulu kunezinga lokukhula lokuhweba kwamanye amazwe kazwelonke, futhi, ngikholwa ukuthi umfutho wokukhula uzoqhubeka nokukhula.
Okwesine, imikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi kanye nemikhiqizo edinga abasebenzi ukuze kuzuzwe ukukhula okuphindwe kabili, besikhathazekile ngokuthi, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa, ukwenyuka kwezindleko zabasebenzi, kanye neVietnam ezungezile, iMalaysia ngeke isuse isabelo semakethe kanye nezinye izizathu, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo edinga abasebenzi kuzokwehla, kodwa kusukela kudatha yangoNovemba odlule, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo edinga abasebenzi kufinyelele ku-3.91 trillion yuan, ukwenyuka kuka-9.9%, imikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi kanye nokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo edinga abasebenzi Ngemuva kokukhula okuphindwe kabili, kukhombisa ukuthi siyaqhubeka nokuqinisa ukuguqulwa nokuthuthukiswa kwamabhizinisi okuhweba kwamanye amazwe, kanye nokuguqulwa kwesakhiwo somkhiqizo wamabhizinisi okuhweba kwamanye amazwe.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyi-11, i-ASEAN isengumlingani wethu omkhulu wokuhweba, lapha ngenxa yokuqaliswa kwe-RCEP, futhi i-RCEP elandelayo izoqhubeka nokusebenza.
Ngakho-ke, ngokombono wonyaka wonke, ngicabanga ukuthi ukuhweba ngokungenisa nokuthumela impahla kwamanye amazwe kusazoba yintuthuko enempilo nezinzile, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kusazokhula ngamadijithi amabili, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe nakho kuzokhula maduze.
"Ama-oda ezinkampani zokuhweba zangaphandle ayisitsha selayisi, iqembu eliya olwandle liyisiqalo emlandweni wokuhweba kwangaphandle"
Izindaba Zokusefa: Njengamanje, ohulumeni bendawo abaningi bahlela amabhizinisi ukuze bathathe ama-oda, niwubheka kanjani lo mjikelezo wesenzo?
Wei Jianguo: Kwamabhizinisi ezohwebo zakwamanye amazwe, i-oda liyisitsha selayisi, akukho ma-oda angasinda. Uhulumeni wahlela amabhizinisi ezohwebo zakwamanye amazwe ukuthi aye olwandle, kungashiwo ukuthi kuyizinto ezintsha emlandweni wezohwebo zakwamanye amazwe. Ngiphawulile ukuthi lokhu kusungula akugcini nje kuphela ogwini lwaseGuangdong, eZhejiang, eJiangsu, eFujian, njll., ezifundeni eziphakathi nasentshonalanga, okuhlanganisa neHunan, eSichuan, njll. nakho kwaqala, okuyinto enhle.
Ngaphezu kokusungula izinto ezintsha, ulwandle lokuthola ama-oda lubaluleke kakhulu ekuqaliseni izimfuneko zomhlangano wangoDisemba 6 we-Central Political Bureau “amaqembu ayalokotha enze, amabhizinisi endawo ayalokotha enze, izixuku ziyalokotha zibe ngamaphayona”.
Iqembu elizothatha ama-oda phesheya, okokuqala, libonisa ukuthi ngemuva kweNgqungquthela Kazwelonke yama-20, amabhizinisi ezohwebo lwangaphandle anokubukeka okusha, anesibindi sokudlula ukuze anqobe umhlaba; okwesibili, ama-oda angamabhizinisi ezohwebo lwangaphandle, kodwa alandelwa uchungechunge lokukhiqiza, ukuqashwa kanye nesethi ephelele yemakethe yasekhaya, ngakho-ke ama-oda okuthatha imakethe awukuthi athathe imakethe; okwesithathu, amabhizinisi ezohwebo lwangaphandle azobonisa phesheya, kunezinkinga eziningi zamabhizinisi, uhulumeni udlale indima ethi "Esinye isandla", ungabona ukuthi uhulumeni uyashesha, unezinsizakalo zokusiza amabhizinisi ukuxazulula ubunzima, okuhlanganisa izindiza eziqashiwe, ukuvimbela ubhubhane kanye nemali.
Kusukela manje kuze kube ngu-Ephreli ozayo, ngoMeyi, umhlaba wonke uzoba nemibukiso ehlukahlukene engamakhulu amahlanu noma ayisithupha, kumele sihlanganyele ngenkuthalo, hhayi eGuangdong, eHong Kong naseMacao kuphela, esifundeni saseYangtze River Delta ukuze sihlanganyele, izifunda eziphakathi nezisentshonalanga, isifunda esisenyakatho-mpumalanga kufanele futhi sihlanganyele ngenkuthalo, manje yisikhathi esihle sokudlala indima "yeqembu".
Ubhubhane lweminyaka emithathu alugcini nje ngokuhweba kwamanye amazwe, umnotho wethu wonke ngokushintshana komhlaba wonke, ukuxhumana, ukudokha akwanele, uchungechunge lokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke eminyakeni emithathu edlule luqhubekile nokulungisa, futhi lokhu kulungiswa kungenxa yokungabikho kwamanye amabhizinisi aseShayina, manje kulokhu ukuze silungise ibanga, ngokushesha singene ochungechungeni olusha lokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke, uchungechunge lwezimboni, kumelwe senze umsebenzi omuhle "wokushintshana, ukuxhumana, ukudokha", sidinga ukuphuma, hhayi nje ukulwela ama-oda okuthumela kwamanye amazwe, kodwa futhi nokuheha utshalomali olwengeziwe eShayina.
"Isimo sokuhweba kwamanye amazwe sonyaka ozayo sinzima, kodwa futhi sisesikhathini esinzima kakhulu"
Izindaba Zokusefa: sithini isibikezelo sesimo sokuhweba kwamanye amazwe sonyaka ozayo?
Wei Jianguo: izimo ezimbili, isimo ngonyaka ozayo sibi kakhulu, amabhizinisi okuhweba kwamanye amazwe asekhaya kusadingeka anqobe umthelela obangelwe ubhubhane lwasekhaya, isikhathi esilibazisekile sokuzibamba, okuyisihluthulelo, isici samazwe ngamazwe, okunye kokulwa nobumbano lomhlaba wonke, okuhlanganisa ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo, ukuzimela, njll., kuzothinta kakhulu ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe eShayina, futhi kuyinselele yethu enkulu kakhulu futhi okufanele siyinqobe.
Kusukela ekupheleni kwamabhizinisi okuhweba kwamanye amazwe alo nyaka ukuze sibone isimo, unyaka ozayo yisikhathi esinamandla kakhulu. Ukuze siqhubeke sivulekele umhlaba wangaphandle ezingeni eliphezulu, amabhizinisi okuhweba kwamanye amazwe ukuze aqhubekisele phambili umoya wokulwela ukwenza isibindi sokudlula, futhi alwele unyaka ozayo, isidingo sangaphandle asanele, futhi ngisho nesidingo sangaphandle isikhathi esithile sinzima kakhulu, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe ukubhekana nobunzima, ukugcina isimo samanje, noma esingcono kakhulu kunesimo salo nyaka, ukukhula okuphindwe kabili kokuhweba kwamanye amazwe, kuzokwandiswa ngaphansi kwemizamo yethu isikhathi esithile.
Izindaba Zokushushuluza: Yiziphi izinto ezivelele zokuhweba kwamanye amazwe ngonyaka ozayo okufanele ziqashelwe?
Wei Jianguo: Okugqamile kakhulu ukuvuselelwa kwesitayela saseShayina esifuna ukukusebenzisa. Ukuvuselelwa kwesitayela saseShayina kugcizelela izinga eliphezulu lokuvuleleka ezweni langaphandle. Ngonyaka ozayo, kuzoba nochungechunge lwezinqubomgomo nezinyathelo zokukhuthaza izinga eliphezulu lokuvuleleka ezweni langaphandle, ukukhuthaza indawo yebhizinisi laseShayina, ukuvikelwa kwempahla yobuhlakani, ikakhulukazi ekusungulweni kohlelo lwemakethe olusekelwe ekuqinisekisweni, ukumaketha kanye nokwenziwa kwamanye amazwe, ukuthatha isinyathelo esikhulu phambili, futhi imakethe enkulu yaseShayina izodonsela ukutshalwa kwezimali okungenakubalwa njengomuntu oyisiwula. Ngemuva kobhubhane, ukukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke, imali, ubuchwepheshe kanye namakhono kuzosheshisa ukudluliselwa eShayina, kumele silungele, izifundazwe ezilungele kakhulu, amathuba amaningi okubamba.
Izindaba Zokushwibeka: Iyiphi indima ezodlalwa ukuzinzisa ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe ekuqiniseni ukukhula? Ngonyaka ozayo, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe okuzinzile kufanele kube yiziphi izici okufanele kwenziwe ngazo imizamo?
UWei Jianguo: Ukusetshenziswa akukaqhubeki, umphumela wokutshalwa kwezimali awukabonakali, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe kuzoqhubeka nokudlala indima enkulu. Ukuqinisa ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe, into eyinhloko ukuzinzisa izihloko zemakethe, ukuzinzisa inqubomgomo yokuhweba kwamanye amazwe. Okokuqala, ukuqaliswa kochungechunge lwezinqubomgomo zokuhweba kwamanye amazwe kusukela kulo nyaka, ezihilela umshwalense, isikweletu, amasiko, okuhlanganisa nezinqubomgomo ezithile zokukhetha ze-e-commerce ewela imingcele, ukuqonda inhlangano kanye nokuqaliswa; okwesibili, ukusungula iqembu elikhulu, elivulekile lolwazi, isidingo somhlaba wonke salokho okukhona, iyiphi indawo enombukiso, iyiphi indawo edinga amakhasimende, yisiphi iseluleko ngemikhiqizo yethu, yiziphi izimakethe ezisadinga ukuhlolwa, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe okufanele kuthathwe ngokushesha okukhulu. Okwesithathu, ukusungulwa "kwe-flagship" njengokugcinwa okuyinhloko, okunye "kwe-frigate" kwemodeli "yemikhumbi", okungukuthi, amabhizinisi amakhulu okufanele ahole, namabhizinisi amancane akhuphukayo naphansi kwe-Linkage, ukwakheka kwendlela "yokuma okukodwa" yokuthuthukisa izimakethe ezintsha.
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Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba 15-2022